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Worldwide High Performance Computing Servers 2016 Total Market Model and Forecast: Server Class

by Addison Snell, Christopher G. Willard, Ph.D., Laura Segervalll
for Intersect360 Research
March 2018
This Intersect360 Research report presents the 2016 total market model and five-year forecast for High Performance Computing (HPC) servers, segmented by server class (entry-level, midrange, high-end, supercomputer). The forecast horizon is from 2017 through 2021, with compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) using 2016 as a base.
 
Other Intersect360 Research reports provide forecasts for the worldwide HPC market, segmented by product category (servers, storage, services, software, networking, cloud, and other), geographic region, economic sector, and vertical market, as well as vendor shares for the current year for servers and for storage.
 
Intersect360 Research defines HPC as the use of servers, clusters, and supercomputers—plus associated software, tools, components, storage, and services—for scientific, engineering, or analytical tasks that are particularly intensive in computation, memory usage, or data management. Intersect360 Research separately tracks the hyperscale market, which consists of arbitrarily scalable, web-facing application infrastructure in excess of $1 million of annual spending from a given site.
 
Some of the key findings of this report include:
 
  • The total worldwide HPC market (servers, storage, software, etc.) reached $35.6 billion in 2016, up 3.5% from 2015. Of this market, servers were the largest components. HPC server revenue was $11.5 billion in 2016, growing 3.3% over 2015.
  • The moderate growth rate was fairly evenly distributed across the segments. Supercomputers had the highest growth rate; growth in this segment—as in all segments—came predominantly from the industrial sector.
  • Intersect360 Research projects HPC revenue compound annual growth rate to be 4.3% CAGR from 2016 to 2021, reaching $43.9 billion at the end of the forecast period. HPC servers are the largest product component of the forecast, growing from $11.5 billion in 2016 to $14.4 billion in 2021, a 4.7% CAGR.
  • The overall 4.7% CAGR is weighted slightly to the top segments in the market. The supercomputing segment will be energized by Exascale computing initiatives worldwide, particularly in the later years in the forecast. Nevertheless, the growth is fairly well distributed, with only a single percentage point difference between the fastest-growing and slowest-growing segments.
 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........... 1
TECHNOLOGIES COVERED IN THIS REPORT........... 2
INTRODUCTION........... 4
Server Classes........ 4
What Is HPC?........ 4
HPC 2016 SERVER MODEL: SERVER CLASS........... 5
2016 Market Performance........ 5
2016–2021 HPC SERVER FORECAST: SERVER CLASS........... 6
CONCLUSIONS........... 7
APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY........... 8
Methodology Updates........ 8
APPENDIX B: HPC MARKET DYNAMICS MODEL AND FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS........... 10
Market Maturity........ 10
Fundamental Market Dynamics Model........ 10
Fundamental Market Assumptions........ 12
Fundamental Drivers........ 12
Fundamental Market Dampeners........ 13
Model-Based Assumptions........ 14
Basic Market Drivers........ 14
Basic Market Dampeners........ 14


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